1) Standby for incoming

It is widely rumoured that the A level pass rate will exceed 97% this Thursday, which will represent the highest pass rate ever. So, it’s good to see some people getting their revenge in first, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/education/article4492122.ece I have tried to locate this research paper on the Institute of Directors (IOD) website but there is no trace, maybe it will appear in this coming week. I hope so, because if, as I suspect, this analysis is based on a small self-selecting sample of their members, then it will publicly reveal an appalling ignorance of basic numeracy while complaining about the low standards of numeracy among young people. If this study is indeed based on a small self selecting sample, then the numbers being thrown around have no generalised validity whatsoever, they merely describe numerically the cumulative feelings and prejudices of those members who could be arsed to reply to the survey and cannot in any way be taken to represent the views of the total membership. Indeed, by filling in the form, or agreeing to answer questions, these people have probably already identified themselves as being different; therefore a statistical analysis on the basis of these results is entirely spurious. I know this kind of misunderstanding and misuse of statistics is commonplace, however, if it proves to be true here, then we don’t so much have an objective assessment of young people today but a public demonstration of hubris by the IOD. And while I’m at it, since when have most members of the IOD been experts in anything but the narrow details of their chosen business. Finally, if anyone is in any doubt about the IOD standards you should know that they twice invited me to become a member.

2) A batch of interesting case studies

A case study of mentoring a troubled, chaotic teenager http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/aug/06/youngpeople.society

A case study of an AIMHIGHER visit to an Oxford college http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/aug/05/accesstouniversity.highereducation

A case study of cared for child who become a lawyer http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/jul/16/children.childprotection as Tracy said it’s a mixed message good and bad….

3) One step forward, one step back

The government is expanding the money available for summer schools and mentoring through the City challenge program http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/jul/28/bright.children meanwhile more universities are introducing their own recruitment tests http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/news/story/0,,2291290,00.html which will adversely affect disadvantaged students. Win some, loose some.

4) SATs results

The latest SATs results show some worrying trends, http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/aug/06/sats.primaryschools I think the level 5 results are both interesting and worrying when broken down by gender with boys achieving significantly worse than girls http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000804/index.shtml I’d be interested to see the boys results when broken down by class and ethnicity, I fear there are very few white working class boys achieving level 5. These findings are matched by the numbers of children who move onto secondary school without a full toolkit of basic skills, functioning below level 4 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1041631/Entire-generation-pupils-failed-reading-writing-maths.html

5) Crime down, fear of crime up, why, why, why?

When asked about the level of crime, people conflate a number of things, but primarily they think about how safe they feel, not the statistical chance of their car being stolen http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/may/19/fear.of.crime . This really isn’t hard to understand, but it seems to permanently evade ministers, senior police officers and many journalists who are apparently determined to remain puzzled by the problem; like those depositors of plastic wrapped flower tributes at sites of national grieving who’s banal notes blubber ‘why, why, why’ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article4380637.ece
However, for those who still crave for a balance between perception of crime and crime statistics, I think I can see some good news coming your way. There are signs that recent rises in food and utility bills are already setting off a splurge of shop lifting. Have you noticed that Tesco are not only security tagging expensive cuts of meat; they have started tagging the chickens, well they have in Finsbury Park. When people start stealing battery farmed chickens you know that the financial pressure is on. As gas, electricity and food prices are now consuming the sum total of many low income families’ financial resources there will be nothing left for Christmas. My guess is that as the festive celebration looms, rises in retail theft will balloon; not just on inner city estates, it’s going to be a ‘knock off Christmas’. Consequently, statisticians, police officers and politicians will enter the New Year with the satisfaction that the numerical balance between the fear of crime and the actuality of crime statistics has begun to be restored.

6) Happy land

Michael Gove, the Conservative Party spokesperson for education has delivered an interesting and well researched speech about educational disadvantage, it’s worth reading. Is this the future policy direction for the UK? http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/aug/08/schools.conservatives

7) It's research, it must be true

The BBC reported a new LSE study that showed 1 in 5 of the UKs 16/17 year olds are not in education employment or training (NEET), which is double the official figure. The research also featured on the BBC television news as a mid range item. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7515042.stm When I saw this, I thought the finding was both interesting and what I had feared. I also mused how relatively obscure pieces of local research can be rapidly circulated by international news agencies, for example, I found it repeated the following day on a news site aimed at the Indian community in Thailand http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/teen-troubles-target-britain_10073708.html Just one detail of a problem with the story: there is no such research report. I discovered this when I went to the LSE website and tried to view the details of the research, (I’ve been around long enough to know that you are unwise to take press releases on trust, always ask to see the data and methodology); when I couldn’t find any trace or reference to this research on the LSE website I started making inquiries. Long story short: it turns out that at a public meeting one of the LSE’s researchers had suggested that it may be the case that there are more young people not in employment, education or training than government figures suggest and this got a little twist by a listening journalist into ‘a study at the LSE has shown’ and there you go, the hare is running. Shame that not one of the people who ran the story bothered to check, or am I just being old fashioned, never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

8) Happiness needs to be constructed

I have decided that from now on that I will include a piece of genuinely good news with every blog update. Well, that’s my intension; furthermore it will be an item of education policy or at least of some sort of positive social practice. Whatever the struggle, I promise there will be no resort to Youtube video links of sneezing pandas.
Good news item of the week
Since 2004, care leavers have gone from 1 per cent of the student population to 6 per cent and that’s before the Brightside Trust’s projects have fully kicked in. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/higher/in-the-loop-why-a-rising-number-of-careleavers-are-going-to-university-880934.html On a more abstract level, I think this is also a classic example of a successful social policy intervention. It shows how life changing contributions to people’s lives, can be achieved, even where initial prospects don’t look good.

9) Not poor enough

Nearly half a million British children growing up in poverty are not entitled to a free school meal. The parents of 410,000 youngsters do not qualify because they are not receiving benefits but they are on such low incomes they are officially classed as living in poverty. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/2008/07/29/exclusive-hard-up-kids-denied-free-school-meals-115875-20675397/